Forecasting and Tracking Macroeconomic Consumer Spending with Transaction Data
Consumer spending is off to a rocky start in 2025, with trade policy uncertainties driving record-low sentiment. Some categories are already feeling the pain, while others appear to be more resilient as consumers trade-down and adjust spending habits. Using Earnest’s Vela Gamma dataset, this report explores:
- Is consumer spending slowing? If so, which categories are most impacted?
- How are ticket sizes evolving with inflation fears returning?
- What states are seeing the fastest and slowest spending growth trends?
- How can Earnest data be used to predict government reported retail metrics?
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