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Forecasting and Tracking Macroeconomic Consumer Spending with Transaction Data

 

Consumer spending is off to a rocky start in 2025, with trade policy uncertainties driving record-low sentiment. Some categories are already feeling the pain, while others appear to be more resilient as consumers trade-down and adjust spending habits. Using Earnest’s Vela Gamma dataset, this report explores:

  • Is consumer spending slowing? If so, which categories are most impacted?
  • How are ticket sizes evolving with inflation fears returning?
  • What states are seeing the fastest and slowest spending growth trends?
  • How can Earnest data be used to predict government reported retail metrics?

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Investors and companies use Earnest for

 

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Earnings predictions

AI-powered and analyst-perfected revenue predictions using actual consumer spending and historic reported metrics to deliver a real time preview into earnings surprises.

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Competitor benchmarking

Spending data provides a clear picture of sales, transactions, retention, brand preference, and customer growth across thousands of public and private companies in real time.

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Market share sizing

Use spending data to track share of consumer dollars across traditional and DTC retailers. Cohort markets by income, age, channel, geography, source, and category.

Why clients choose Earnest

"Earnest understands the buy-side workflow and how to incorporate its insights seamlessly into our investment process." -Long/short fund manager
"To be able to benchmark our performance nationally and by individual market in near-real-time allows us to run our business more intelligently." -Alex Pasley, Chief of Staff & Head of Strategy, Corepower Yoga
"Earnest is a treasure trove of granular, individual-level transactional data…Knowing that we have this data for a very large universe of companies over multiple years is a game changer." -Dan McCarthy, Co-Founder of Theta

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Earnest Dash

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Earnest Dash online platform surfaces real-time earnings predictions, sales growth, customer retention, market share, and macroeconomic insights.

Data Feed

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Access aggregated or row level data. Receive both daily updated raw data and transformed data tables including merchant and/or product attributions—all with unlimited flexibility to run customer analyses.