Tax refund season is an important part of many retailers’ sales cycle, driving demand for discretionary and big ticket items after the holidays end. This year, a confluence of persistent inflation, slowing employment expansion, and paltry refund growth dampened refund spending boosts. Key takeaways include:

Total tax dollars refunded grew 2.2% YoY with the average check size up 1.2%.

Home Furnishing and Footwear benefited from refunds into April, but slowed for Apparel, Auto Parts, and Electronics

Express, Adidas, Wayfair, Macy’s, and Lululemon benefited the most from refund spending

This analysis uses Earnest’s Orion transaction data in the online Dash platform and Tax Refund Dashboard. The data includes sales records and direct deposits for individual, anonymous households across their credit and debit card accounts that can provide a holistic view of customers’ income and spending.